Today, however, we decided to look at TON from a different perspective and discuss certain issues that can interfere with Telegram plans to dominate the market.
Network Centralization
The creator of Telegram Pavel Durov has officially reported to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on holding two private rounds of Gram tokens ICO and raising $850M each round. By the way, no coins were sold as of yet, it was rather the contracts that obliged the Telegram party to supply the investors with the tokens once the time is right.
All this talk about how successful ICO was distracts us from the fact that it was not a public ICO. Meaning that when TON is released, all cryptocurrency will be concentrated on the accounts of large investors who will be the first block validators. Perhaps the Telegram team will come up with some kind of protective mechanism against this case of blockchain centralization, but nobody knows for sure now.
Low Investment Attractiveness
Why do investors love cryptocurrencies exactly? That's right, for their multiplying property to make hundreds of per cent in profit in just a few days or months when a project completes the development cycle and gets listed on major cryptocurrency exchanges. But all these factors do not account for the Telegram cryptocurrency because it has not hit the public market, and its value depends on the services provided on the TON platform.
Looks like the cost of Gram will grow gradually, as it moves from large investors down to the ordinary users. And they would have to spend this cryptocurrency inside TON, so the more it will be used, the higher the price rate. But what if the Telegram users are not going to be interested in Gram? What if TON services will be left unclaimed given it would be easier to make regular purchases for fiat money or other cryptocurrencies instead of Gram?
Technical Issues
Pavel Durov’s brother, Nikolai, is the brains of the Telegram team. Of course, there are other talented and tech-savvy specialists who have proven that they can make a high-quality product. Take Telegram, for instance. Or it’s centralized predecessor VKontakte, which is a massive Russian social network. However, these examples are not blockchain platforms and certainly not payment systems with a cryptocurrency environment. Pavel also doesn’t like new people in his team, preferring only those he already knows.
All in all, despite the solid investments, the Telegram team may simply not have enough specific knowledge on the matter. It is most likely that Durov will reconsider his views and eventually invite blockchain developers should the project fall on the slippery slope of the failure. But all the information about the project progress is kept secret and so far we only know two things for sure: the deadline for the TON blockchain, which is Fall of 2019, and that the Telegram Passport ID service is already launched.
Problems With Regulators
And another potential problem that could spoil Pavel Durov's plans is the state regulation standpoint. Take the Roskomnadzor war, for instance. The Russian authorities have shut down Telegram because the app team refused to disclose the chat contents of the users. Imagine the irritation of officials when you will be able not only to communicate secretly but also to make purchases, launch sites, transfer information on the TON network and so on.
It would be then when the government will take Telegram Open Network seriously. Russia will not be alone in this list. Iranian authorities have already announced a ban on the messenger because of the Gram ICO, after which the application was rendered “dangerous to national security”. There is a high probability that the authorities of other countries will make similar decisions after Iran and Russia. Even the USA, with whom Pavel is still doing well, can reconsider their attitude to his project if the Gram cryptocurrency starts taking away the market from the American dollar.
Conclusions
It is known that the purchase contracts for Gram tokens prescribe a refund to investors in the event that Telegram Open Network will not be launched in due time. But the questions we raised mainly concern the period that will come after the launch of the blockchain. And we very much hope that Pavel Durov and his team will be ready for these challenges and solve all the possible issues. After all, Durov has already created two successful projects, so he might as well finish the third one.
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