Everybody wants to know when wintertime for bitcoin is over and its price gets up. In 2018 a lot of people were waiting for this but it didn`t happen. Why? Maybe because the predictions were made about expectations only for highpoint. People were told exactly they wanted to hear.
We are not going to follow this way and we will tell you the real out looks for the 2019. Non-exclusion that we are wrong because the predictions of behaviour of unregulated cryptocurrency markets is thankless nightmare. Anyway, our team has two different year-end scenarios.
Pessimistic scenario
Good news is that bitcoin had four price bubbles and it gives a big chance to get new high up. It will be many times higher than the previous one. It means that famous analysts could be right about price in 50, 100, 200 and more thousands.
Bad thing is that after previous bubble in the end of 2013 the market needed two years to get the breakout growth phase with the up to 20 thousands dollars in December 2017. Then while 2018 it was at the bubble deflates and it isn`t over. Theoretical there is the possibility for market going down. That's why at the beginning of 2019 bitcoin could cost 1500 dollars. Then it could move to growth phase in the middle of summer and to the beginning of winter it could be start of new flight to the moon. There is a tiny chance that it will get a new record in 2019 but there many reasons for the market growing.
Optimistic scenario
At the first scenario we relied primarily on technical review of data. Let's add now possible fundamental factors. Enhanced opportunities, development of new technology and growing of hashrate, all these things are good. But it could not be a hit for the market because the value during the previous bubble was too high.
The realization of optimistic scenario of bitcoin`s rate needs some strong factors. For example, starting of crypto platform Bakkt or bitcoin-ETF approval. Both of these events were expected in the end of 2018, but USA Government constantly puts off timing of the decision.
There are just rumors and speculation that Bakkt will be solved in the beginning of December. But we know exactly that bitcoin ETF should be settled till the 27th of February, that is the last possible term which couldn`t be postponing consideration. So we recommend you describe our telegram channel on the URL and don`t miss important news about the SEC USA decision on bitcoin-ETF.
Even approving of one of these factors could give the market a good stimulation for growing.
But it should not be overestimated. Through bitcoin-ETF and Bakkt the members of stock market could go inside but they hardly need. The crypto market in the end of winter and in the beginning of spring 2019 will be hardly ready for the race, so there will not be highpoint and there will not a transfusion of new blood.
So we are not waiting flying to the moon right after Bakkt or bitcoin-ETF starts. But it should be a big stimulation for growing and push the trend to 8-10 thousand dollars till summer. Then there will be wash-in phase that bring an official command for boarding on the rocket to the new records in the beginning of the winter.
Perhaps, our out looks seams too reserved. We will be really happy if we are wrong and tomorrow bitcoin will up to 20 thousand dollars. But it's better to be realistic at the any financial marker. Better safe to develop a trading strategy according to the scenario of minimum daily wage than have hopeless fantasies.