During the cryptowinter of 2018, the community was fascinated by the bounce of the Bitcoin exchange rate, each time hoping for a trend reversal. In the end, this happened only when bitcoin fell to almost $ 3,000 and an atmosphere of apathy and disbelief was established in the market, accompanied by expectations of an even deeper bottom.
Then the bear predictors were defeated and by mid-2019, the BTC rate exceeded $ 13,500, forcing everyone to believe in the approach of the new bullran. However, the story repeated itself and until the end of 2019, bitcoin plunged into the downtrend, against which there was again a lot of talk about updating the bottom. But the 2020th gave a surprise in the form of a local rate reversal and now the opinions of analysts are again divided.
All this suggests that the prediction for the movement of the still unregulated and highly volatile market is a completely thankless task. Therefore, we do not undertake the preparation of a 100% accurate prediction of bitcoin, but just consider the possible options for further changes in its price, based on the opinions of famous crypto personalities.
Bitcoin Prediction for 2020
Since the community of crypto traders and analysts has completely opposite price prediction for the rate of bitcoin for 2020, it makes sense to divide them into two categories.
Optimistic Prediction
For example, expert Daniel Harrison considers it quite possible to reach the level of $ 31,500 by the end of the year due to increased interest in the cryptocurrency market from large investors.
Tom Lee, managing partner of the analytic company Fundstrat Global Advisor, also predicts an injection of institutional money into the cryptocurrency market, with the result that Bitcoin will reach $ 55,000. The first bell to start a new growth cycle, he considers the launch of Bakkt.
And Harvard economist Dennis Porto is talking about the price of $ 100,000 for 1 BTC until the end of 2020, applying Moore’s law for his calculations — an annual 2-fold increase in the number of transistors of one integrated circuit.
It turns out that this forecast will come true, Bitcoin should reach $ 50,000 in April 2020 and then double the price by the end of the year.
Also, the likelihood that the main cryptocurrency will reach the $ 100,000 mark during this year allows Alessio Rastani. True, for this to happen some global events like the collapse of the stock market.
Alessio came to these conclusions after talking with reputable trader Zach Mir, which promises Bitcoin at least $ 50,000, not excluding the twice as high price, under a successful combination of circumstances. You can familiarize yourself with these Bitcoin price prediction in more detail by watching the video:
The prediction from Rastani, announced in early January, speaks about the positive dynamics of the BTC rate, as a result of which the resistance level of $ 7,600 was broken for several months.
Alessio believes that this indicates the beginning of a new uptrend that will lead Bitcoin to a price of at least $ 10,000, but $ 20,000 and higher figures are also possible.
There is also an even more optimistic forecast of Bitcoin from Chris (MM Crypto) — an achievement of $ 425,000. To determine this figure, we used the basic TA indicator “moving average” with non-standard settings (1458 days) and linking the movements of the rate to the 4-year market cycle, as well as to bitcoin halving, after which new price records always followed.
Another mind-blowing prediction for bitcoin back in the summer of 2019 was given by the infamous crypto investor John McAfee. According to his expectations, the main cryptocurrency should be traded in the region of $ 1 million at the end of 2020.
However, he recently hinted that this prediction was a ruse to attract new users, which worked fine. Therefore, one should not take seriously the figure mentioned by him earlier.
Now about the more serious guys with prediction for the near future: Sunny Decree and Chris from MMCrypto are of the opinion that overcoming the 200-day moving average and consolidating above the level of $ 10,000 will be a clear sign of continued growth in the BTC rate. In addition, Sunny recalls the upcoming halving and the ongoing increase in the hashrate of the Bitcoin network, linking both of these points with the upcoming bull market.
Pessimistic Prediction
In contrast to 2019, there are practically no pessimistic sentiments among bloggers and analysts. And even the main “bear” of the crypto market, Ton Weiss, expressed his readiness to go into the sect of the to the moon supporters if in the near future there will be a fixation over the 200-day moving average.
However, if this does not happen, Weiss still admits the possibility of a deep drawdown of the bitcoin rate up to $ 5,000 and even $ 2,800. He also describes another, less catastrophic, scenario: a descent to the level of $ 7,000 and subsequent accumulation for 6–9 months, after which growth will continue.
Another version of a slightly bearish scenario is available from Crypto Zombie — the upper edge of the downward channel, from which bitcoin was finally able to get out, can become a support line, at which the price will continue to “slide” down in search of a higher than the previous local bottom.
In addition, if in the near future we do not see dizzying growth, the arrival of bears on the market now still seems extremely unlikely. Think for yourself – last year bitcoin grew 4.5 times and this was almost not accompanied by information hype. This means that the time for mass hysteria has not yet arrived. More like a quiet preparation for boarding a rocket than a direct flight in it.
At the same time, it’s completely illogical now to send the price to the bottom again, giving the crowd the opportunity to buy bitcoin cheaply. It’s much more profitable to continue the flight after additional accumulation of positions, as it should be, starting to advertise a new native of Bitcoin in the media at a time when the rocket will already fly up to the moon.
Bitcoin Prediction for 2019
Most of the prediction of bitcoin exchange rate for 2019 voiced by analysts and bloggers could be conditionally divided into two directions.
At the end of the section, we will summarize which of the cryptanalysts turned out to be the closest to the real price of bitcoin at the end of 2019.
Optimistic Prediction
The growth from $ 3,200 to $ 14,000 in 2019 was seen by many as preparation for a more global bullran, the reasons for which in theory should have been the launch of the Bakkt platform and the approval of the Bitcoin-ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
But in the end, everything turned out a little differently: the first event did not bring the expected push of the course up, and the second one was once again postponed, which was accompanied by a significant subsidence in the price of bitcoin.
However, there was no reason to panic, since the correction is a completely natural event after an increase of 4.5 times, and many who made Bitcoin predictions, outlining a bright future for it, and the very near future.
For example, technical analyst Alessio Rastani admitted a drawdown of up to $ 7,000, after which he expected the implementation of the “wild card” scenario — a sharp rebound followed by the assault on ATH in 2019 and, if successful, reaching the $ 39,000 mark.
A similar opinion was shared by Chris from the YouTube channel MMCrypto, claiming that $ 14,000 is not the peak of the new to the moon, which means that it is too early to expect a complete coup of the market on the side of the bears.
Also, the update of highs until the end of 2019 was predicted by the famous financial analyst Max Kaiser — in his opinion, the overcoming of the $ 10,000 mark opened the way for Bitcoin to $ 28,000, where he may go after the correction is completed.
Mike Novogratz, the head of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank, called slightly different numbers — he was sure that in the fourth quarter of 2019, the bitcoin exchange rate would reach $ 20,000 due to the entry of investment banks into the game. And after that, the bull rally will not be over, and the price of the main cryptocurrency will begin to confidently move to the level of $ 40,000.
A similar prediction for bitcoin was given by Andy Chung, operating director of the OKEx crypto exchange, expecting in the very near future the influx of institutional investors into the market.
And YouTube blogger Sunny Decree saw the $ 90,000 mark on the chart by the end of 2019. He came to this conclusion, making the assumption that the growth of 2017 was analogous to the preparatory phase of 2013, after which a real bull rally followed.
As for the autumn correction, Sunny believed that a drawdown of 40% is a completely normal phenomenon, behind which there is an additional accumulation of positions by the market maker before the next spurt.
In addition, he argued that in order to reverse a trend, a price peak must be reached that exceeds the previous ATH, which has not yet happened. And the correction that came after leaving the triangle, which was considered by many as a bullish figure, is a standard deceitful maneuver for landing extra "passengers" before continuing the upward movement.
A less optimistic Bitcoin Price Prediction was given by Crypto Zombie, who considered the fractal on the chart, previously leading to a significant increase in the rate. At the same time, he did not specify what figures we are talking about, and did not give a guarantee that everything would go according to a similar scenario. He was doubted by a bear flag that was almost formed on the chart, increasing the likelihood of continued downward movement.
Well, now, when 2020 has already come, we can conclude which of the above analysts managed to predict the movement of the Bitcoin exchange rate by the end of last year.
Let's start with the overly optimistic blogger Sunny Decree — in 2019, he did not wait for Bitcoin for $ 90,000. The financial analyst Max Kaiser, who predicted Bitcoin to overcome the $ 14,000 mark and then double the price, turned out to be wrong.
Mike Novogratz called slightly lower numbers, but his expectation of $ 20,000 for 1 BTC by the end of 2019 also did not come true. We do not take into account the prediction of Crypto Zombie, since he did not name specific numbers and hinted at the development of the fractal with an upward movement, not excluding the possible drawdown.
Closest to the real state of affairs was Alessio Rastani: as he expected, in the fall of 2019, the value of bitcoin dipped to almost $ 7,000 and then the “wild card" was realized — an unexpected sharp jump up $ 3,000 in two days. However, after this there was no predicted assault on the level of $ 14,000, and even more so $ 39,000, the downtrend continued and the rate fell to $ 6,500. Thus, only the first half of Rastani’s forecast came true, which is generally not so bad, given the absolute blunders of the remaining bitcoin optimists.
Pessimistic Prediction
Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced the so-called price bubbles, accompanied by panic screams of the crowd in the style of "everything was gone," but every time after that a new native came up. This means that there is still a chance of seeing a Bitcoin exchange rate of $ 50,000, $ 100,000, and even $ 200,000.
But there is also bad news — for example, after the rapid upswing in 2013, the market took about 2 years to enter a new sustainable growth phase, which ended in December 2017. That is, almost 4 years have passed between the tops of these cycles on the Bitcoin chart.
Now, less than three years have passed since the end of the last “bull race”. And that means that before the start of the new rally, there may well be another 1-2 years that Bitcoin will spend in a wide-range flat, or maybe even in a downtrend with an update of lows.
In October 2019, only bearish figures looming on the Bitcoin chart alluded to the fact that there will be no to the moon in the near future, but they could be “helped” at any moment by fundamental reasons such as a ban in any country or another robbery by hackers of a large cryptocurrency exchange. Many feared that a panicking crowd would help push the price down and we don’t have time to come to our senses, as we will already master the “new bottom”.
In addition, the “bull race” of 2019 could very well be a full-fledged market mini-cycle, the result of which, as always, should be “shaking out weak hands” and lowering the course to marks convenient for the market maker to accumulate bitcoin before the next spurt. If we draw an analogy with the previous cycle, then the last three months of 2019 we were in approximately the same condition as in December 2018, that is, in the accumulation stage at the local bottom.
It was assumed that these would be levels in the region of $ 8,000, or lower marks of $ 7,000 – $ 7,200, as indicated by Tony Weiss and Alessio Rastani, expecting that a U-turn could happen from there, after which Bitcoin will finally go to storm the new ATHs.
And if there hadn’t been a rebound, panic sales could have occurred that would have led Bitcoin to the level of $ 5,000, or maybe even $ 4,000.
Even the eternal optimist Sunny Decree pointed out the possibility of implementing such a scenario. In his opinion, the rate could well go down to $ 6,000 and below, since at this level there was an open gap on Bitcoin futures. But he did not consider this circumstance as a threat to the cryptocurrency market, still expecting a steady uptrend in the medium-long term.
The legendary trader Peter Brant was more pessimistic, who suggested that the inability of the bulls to hold bitcoin above $ 10,000 indicates the possibility of a deeper correction up to 80% of the high of 2019 (from $ 14,000), the movement towards which can be seen as an established growth cycle.
Also noteworthy was the opinion of American investor Tyler Jenks, whereby Bitcoin needs to be well adjusted, even to the same $ 3,000, in order to ensure healthy growth in the future. In parallel, Bitcoin was supposed to gain dominance in the market of about 90%. Otherwise, we, of course, could go to the moon without the mentioned drawdowns and quite reach the level of $ 30,000– $ 50,000.
But this will happen without new investors entering the market and the growth of universal adoption of cryptocurrencies, after which a real collapse will occur with the search for the deepest bottom within 5 or even 10 years.
We cannot yet estimate such a long-term prediction, but the descent to $ 3,000 predicted by Jenks has not yet taken place. As well as Peter Brant's 80% correction.
Also, Rastani and Weiss were not quite right - the rebound from the $ 7,300 mark at the end of October fits well with their forecasts, but until the end of 2019, neither ATH update nor panic sales to $ 4,000 – 5,000 took place.
Most accurately, Sunny Decree's assumption of a decline to $ 6,000 before continuing growth worked out most precisely – in December, bitcoin felt for a local bottom near $ 6,400.
Bitcoin Prediction 2021-2022
If you carefully consider the logarithmic graph of bitcoin throughout its history, you will notice that the native of 2017 and the cryptowinter that followed it are very similar to price changes from 2013 to 2015. Only this time, the period of accumulation at the bottom and subsequent preparatory growth passed more quickly. If these similarities are not accidental and in the future the Bitcoin exchange rate will continue to move according to the same scheme, then after 1.5 years the mark of $ 200,000 – 250,000 may well be reached.
Similar figures appear in the prediction of the price of the main cryptocurrency for 2022 from billionaire Tim Draper:
Similar figures appear in the prediction of the price of the main cryptocurrency for 2022 from billionaire Tim Draper.
A bit more restrained prediction of Bitcoin is given by Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompiliano. He believes that by the end of 2021, the main cryptocurrency with a 75% probability will rise in price to $ 100,000. Moreover, the rise to this mark will not be recoilless.
“I expect a lot of drawdowns of 20-30% of the new ATH in the process of increasing the value of this asset. These mini-cycles of ups and downs should not become a cause for panic, but should be regarded as the natural market dynamics of an asset, which is rapidly growing in price over a short period of time.”
wrote in the summer of 2019 Pompiliano in a letter to Morgan Creek customers
The main reasons for the growth in his prediction of Bitcoin, he calls a strong increase in demand with limited supply, including due to a 50% decline in emissions in May 2020, the spread of cryptocurrencies among institutional groups and the approval of the long-awaited Bitcoin-ETFs.
A more accelerated prediction about the $ 100,000 mark is contained in a letter published 6 years ago on Reddit allegedly from a time traveler from 2024. It states that bitcoin should reach the level of $ 100,000 by 2019, and in 2021 it will rise in price to $ 1 million. As a result of this, a separate financial elite will be formed from the owners of the main cryptocurrency. The rest of society will oppose them, as a result of which wars will begin, including with the threat of a nuclear catastrophe.
To prevent this from happening, the author of the alarming forecast calls for immediate measures to stop the bitcoin network. But since by the end of 2019, the Bitcoin exchange rate had not yet reached $ 100,000, it is not worth believing in this prediction.
Well, if we talk about unusual predictions of the Bitcoin exchange rate, one cannot but mention the prediction made a week after the launch of its network (January 10, 2009). Its author is one of Satoshi Nakamoto's associates — Hal Finney.
In this prediction of bitcoin from the past, made public a few months ago, it is said that in the end, Bitcoin will become the dominant worldwide payment system with a capitalization of hundreds of billions of dollars and a price of $ 10 million per coin (without specifying the date when this will happen):
Sunny Decree fully agrees with this Bitcoin prediction, however, in his opinion, such figures can be reached no earlier than in one market cycle. Previously, in the next native, which will approximately end in 2021, a mark of $ 200,000 should be reached.
Analyst Benjamin Coven sees the future of bitcoin less rosy. Using the method of logistic regression, he came to the conclusion that during the next to the moon, which will happen no earlier than 2023, Bitcoin will be able to overcome the level of $ 100,000, but will not reach $ 200,000.
Also, Davincij15 does not see the sky-high price tag of $ 10 million, since he believes that all world money will have to concentrate in Bitcoin to achieve it. But even in this case, they will not be enough, since the total money supply in the future will decrease several times due to the blowing off of the bubbles of classical markets.
Therefore, for the long term, he gives a forecast that bitcoin will at best reach $ 1 million in 3-5 years and this will be his last to the moon. After that, the rate will drop to the $ 200,000 area, and the main cryptocurrency will stably flat at this level.
Peter Brant and Alessio Rastani recommend caution about such Bitcoin price prediction. They believe that the main drawback of such predictions is the long term and the “butterfly effect”. Over 4-5 years, many important events can occur that will dramatically affect the cryptocurrency market and the global financial system. And foreseeing them at the moment, of course, is impossible.
At the same time, Brant believes that it is not worth completely rejecting the Bitcoin prediction with a price of $ 1 million. You just need to break it into intermediate targets for shorter time periods. For example, $ 60,000 in a year, $ 200,000 in two, etc. The more accurately they come true, the more likely that a general long-term prediction of bitcoin will be realized.
Who will be right, time will tell.
The main thing is that there is a good reason for pouring such money into Bitcoin. For example — the massive arrival of institutional investors on the cryptocurrency market, accompanied by the transfer of reserves of the Central banks of the leading countries of the world to Bitcoin and the collapse of national currencies.
If we take into account the smooth preparation of infrastructure for large investors and the expectation of another financial crisis, the described scenario ceases to seem so fabulous. The same recently launched Bakkt and ETFs that will be approved sooner or later, at the right time, may well become an occasion for a new price hype with the achievement of the marks described above.
If everything goes according to plan, we will see the next cryptowinter no earlier than 2024. And then at the next day in the region, for example, $ 30,000 for 1 BTC, we again will witness mass hysteria about a blown-up bubble. But those who know about working out the bitcoin market cycles, will be purchased at this moment for the next flight to the moon, which will finally be able to bring us to the prices mentioned above of several million dollars.
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