From January 3 to 8, we witnessed a Bitcoin rally from $ 6,900 to $ 8,300. At the moment, there are three possible reasons for this event: the release of $ 500 million USDT on the market, the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the formation of a bullish reversal on the BTC price chart, according to the technical analysis.
In this article, we will analyze all three reasons how much they could really affect the cryptocurrency market. And also share the opinion of the Coin Post about whether Bitcoin has entered the growth phase and whether it is worth waiting for the early native.
Now many analysts, traders and just bloggers say that Bitcoin shows signs of a bullish reversal and an uptrend is returning to the market. Of all of them I want to single out Alessio Rastani, because he made a similar prediction in advance, and now it begins to come true.
In his video dated January 4, when bitcoin was trading at $ 7,300, Alessio pointed out an interesting situation from the history of the first cryptocurrency, which was back in 2013. There was also a strong Bitcoin rally, then a long-term correction of over 50%. But the price did not return to the starting point, but completed a reversal and went to new historical highs. And at the time of this writing, Bitcoin had drawn a similar picture, on the basis of which Rastani suggested that if Bitcoin breaks the next resistance levels, this will be the first sign of the beginning of strong growth.
You and I already know that bitcoin successfully passed the first resistance line and is trading at more than $ 8,000. But also Alessio additionally predicted this movement based on an analysis of the situation in December 2018, when bitcoin was at the bottom. He released this video on January 7 and there he pointed out the following signs of a reversal: a decrease in bitcoin volatility to its minimum values, several attempts to test the upper limit of resistance and, most importantly, an increase in the bottom level.
He further shows that at the moment, the Bitcoin price chart has the same signs as during the growth in the spring of 2019. The volatility of the first cryptocurrency in recent months was at its minimum values. Resistance at the level of $ 7,600 was tested several times, and on December 18, 2019, the average Bitcoin price dropped to $ 6,500. And on January 3 this year, Bitcoin fell in price to $ 6,900 on its birthday. Thus, we got a higher local bottom.
All these are very important signals for the start of an uptrend, and if the price goes up, and you and I know that bitcoin is already worth more than $ 8,000. Therefore, we can expect a new bull rally and, according to Alessio, the growth can be as much as $ 10,000 so and up to $ 20,000 and up.
If you do not look at the charts, then how can you explain the growth of bitcoin? At the current point in time, there are two reasons and start with the one about which absolutely everyone is talking.
We are talking about the situation in Iran, which has already launched a missile attack on the US military base in Iraq, in response to the assassination by the US military of its general. We are not a channel about politics and are not going to get into this topic. But the facts coincide very beautifully, because right after the assassination of the general, the price of bitcoin began to show growth. And after the news came of Iran's retaliatory missile strike, we saw bitcoin for $ 8,300.
We saw on Twitter, Telegram and in the crypto media the saying that the stronger the conflict in the Middle East, the better for bitcoin. But we oppose any speculation on the theme of World War III and the fact that this supposedly can positively affect the price of bitcoin.
After all, if the politicians get off the idiocy gene and they unleash a similar armed conflict, then it will not be about the victory of a party, but about the survival of mankind as a species. And with the current level of armament of the countries of the world, the chances of this very survival among people are minimal, and bitcoin can grow, but no one will see this.
But while the conflict is at the local level as it is now, we want to remind about Venezuela, Argentina and Turkey, where bitcoin prices were also higher than the market average due to the economic downturn and the devaluation of national currencies. But this did not lead to the growth of the market as a whole.
After all, in the same Venezuela, bitcoin could be sold more expensively, but for local bolivars that no one needed. But the price of cryptocurrencies in dollars was at the international level.
And if someone thinks that against the backdrop of political tension in the world, people will rush to withdraw money from the stock market and hide it in bitcoin, then this is too unreasonable a statement.
Those who do not believe can go outside and ask passers-by - we guarantee that most of them have heard about Bitcoin, but they will not want to buy it from you. Because you will not be able to find arguments why someone needs a digital intangible asset, which so far is not widely accepted and it is not known whether it will be accepted at all in the event of the ephemeral Third World War.
Moreover, almost no one is considering such a bad scenario, the money will most likely flow into the shares of arms manufacturers, because they earn it during armed conflicts.
We believe that reason will triumph and no one will ever see a new world war.
We previously said that the Tether stablecoin capitalization chart is the best indicator of the bitcoin market. Just put the price of the first cryptocurrency on the USDT issue and see for yourself. And now, please the news: from January 6 to 7, 500 million new Tether were released. And there has not been such a large issue since July 2019, that is, since the price hit the ceiling of last year and from there rolled down.
The connection between the new Teher and the growth of Bitcoin is obvious and, moreover, it is even logical, because if new money entered the market, then prices went up. But Teher and Bitfinex themselves, according to media reports, deny everything and call it the failure of the CoinMarketCap site. Allegedly, they previously did not take into account the issue of stablecoin on the TRON blockchain, but then they took it and calculated it.
Why Bitfinex justifies themselves, it’s understandable, they are now completely at a loss for another charge of manipulating the price of Bitcoin, when the New York State Prosecutor’s office almost prepared an indictment against the exchange.
But even if this is actually a failure of the algorithms on CoinMarketCap, then the traders themselves, especially those who use trading bots, having seen such a movement of capitalization, could buy bitcoin and thereby provoke a price increase.
We will monitor this situation, and now let's take stock.
To the moon?
We would not rush to call this turn of the market the beginning of the native or simply a trip to a new historical maximum of the bitcoin price. Here, rather, factors such as the weakness of sellers came together, because they were not able to arrange a panic sale predicted by many. As well as the proximity of the halving, which is considered something mystical and is expected from him to increase prices.
We will say for ourselves that the growth of Bitcoin is always a joy, but until we see at least $ 9,000 overcoming, I will not build any hopes for a full reversal.
It is also important to see how it will happen, because large day candles do not promise anything good, it is much better when the price moves gradually. And again, even if the market reversal is confirmed, now we will not wait for the early tuzemun, and so far we are not going to change our forecast that this year we will see one or more bull races, but then we will also have to undergo a strong correction.