John McAfee has given up and is no longer waiting for $ 1,000,000 bitcoin in 2020. But we have an analyst who is ready to calculate when the real price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the level of $ 1 million.
In this article, we will tell you how many market cycles and bitcoin halvings will pass until a million dollars are paid for 1 BTC. The forecast from Benjamin Coven is based solely on mathematics, which gives a good chance of its execution. And to check how real it is, the next native will help us.
Benjamin Coven makes his predictions with the help of logistic regression - this is when they study statistical data, find mathematical patterns in them and use them to make a forecast of some event.
This time, everything was about the same, and the key indicator was the time periods between the price peaks. In his analysis of the market, 2.5 years passed between the second and third peak of the bitcoin price, and four years passed between the third and fourth.
He specifically did not take into account the data from the very beginning of the launch of bitcoin, because it is difficult to analyze. He also swung at one of the most famous and supported theories that the Bitcoin market cycle lasts about four years.
So if you wait for a bitcoin for a million dollars or even $ 500,000 during the next native, then remember the forecast from Benjamin Coven, according to which the maximum price will only exceed $ 100,000 and will not reach $ 200,000.
This is the case, so as not to miss the moment to go to the cache and not to buy on the very highs, so as not to go until the next tuzemun, because he will have to wait as long as seven years.
The peculiarity of this cycle is that during its time there will be two whole bitcoin halving - it will end in about 2030, and the maximum bitcoin exchange rate will be about $ 500,000.
And the long-awaited million dollars for bitcoin will be received by all those who are ready to walk until 2038 or even until 2040. The last market cycle before the treasured amount will last eight and a half years, during which two halving will also take place, and the market will grow only twice. These are modest "X".
Please note that for each of the three calculated market cycles of bitcoin, Benjamin Coven gave a temporary correction of +/- 1-2-3 years, respectively.
In total, we will wait for bitcoin for a million dollars from twelve years at the best and up to 27 years at the worst. Well, you’ve already seen the average forecast: it will take about 20 years and three tuzemuns before they give a million dollars for one bitcoin.
А как мы без машины времени можем проверить данный прогноз? Когда делаешь прогноз на большой временный срок, его нужно разбить на определенное количество более мелких предсказаний, и чем их больше, тем лучше.
Например, уже довольно скоро, мы имеем в виду через два максимум три года должен завершиться текущий рыночный цикл. На основании того, насколько точно он попадет в общий прогноз по срокам и ценам, можно сделать первый вывод о стройности всей теории биткоина за миллион.